RUR in the spotlight: latest news

Bank of America continues to hold a positive outlook for the Norwegian krone, despite fluctuations in energy prices. The bank's analysis highlights Norway's economic resilience and effective monetary policy as key factors supporting this optimistic forecast.

Bloomberg News has named Jason Schenker the top Major Currency Forecaster in the world for the third consecutive quarter, with his rankings extending through the end of Q4 2025.

The Belarusian economy is expected to experience a prolonged slowdown in 2026, primarily due to ongoing sanctions, restricted access to capital, and its reliance on a weakening Russia. This situation will likely result in modest economic growth.

The IMF and World Bank have issued a warning that Belarus is likely to experience weak economic growth in 2026. This forecast is attributed to ongoing sanctions, reliance on Russia, persistent inflation, and limited recovery prospects.

Analysts forecast a prolonged recession for the Russian economy, with expectations of a downturn lasting until mid-2026. Several key factors contribute to this economic trend.

The 2026 outlook for global foreign exchange markets indicates a shift towards increased fragmentation and risk. This analysis covers key currency pairs, including the Euro against the US Dollar, the British Pound against the US Dollar, the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen, and the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar.

Russian intelligence reports indicate that the country's economy is quickly heading toward recession, a situation increasingly recognized by analytical institutions affiliated with the Kremlin.

SovEcon has increased its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 marketing year by 0.4 million tons, raising the total to 44.6 million tons. This adjustment reflects updated market conditions and expectations.

Ukrainian intelligence warns that the Russian economy is on track for a recession anticipated by July 2026, due to underlying structural problems and fiscal pressures.

Experts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) have provided a forecast for the dollar exchange rate in Belarus and other countries in the region for the year 2026.

In a positive outlook related to enhanced geopolitics and foreign trade, the ruble may temporarily exceed core forecasts and strengthen significantly.

Russia's economy is expected to face increased challenges by 2026, as Western sanctions become stricter and military expenditures related to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine continue to strain the budget. This situation will likely result in slower economic growth and higher taxes for citizens.

Since the onset of the war against Ukraine in 2022, Russia's military efforts have incurred an estimated cost of $550 billion, with 59% of this military spending remaining undisclosed. The increasing taxes and rising prices have placed a significant burden on the country's taxpayers.

In June 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that Western sanctions had not significantly impacted the country's economy. He emphasized that Russia is adapting to these challenges and remains resilient despite the ongoing pressures of wartime conditions.

The current condition of Russia's economy is challenging to evaluate amid wartime. Despite dire predictions from experts, the situation is marked by stagnant growth and declining oil prices, which have forced sacrifices in the civilian sector.

Agricultural consultancy SovEcon has increased its forecast for Russian wheat exports for the 2025-26 marketing season, raising the estimate by 0.4 million tons due to strong demand and improved profit margins.

The South Korean won has made a significant recovery against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since November 4. The USD/KRW exchange rate has shown impressive movement in recent trading sessions.

The Russian ruble experienced a remarkable surge of 44% against the dollar in 2025, making it the best-performing currency globally, second only to gold, which rose 72%, and silver.

The USD/RUB exchange rate is currently at 77.20, reflecting a 35% decline from its peak in November of the previous year. Analysts are now contemplating the future trajectory of the Russian ruble.

The USD/JPY exchange rate experienced a decline following the release of recent macroeconomic data from Japan. It is currently at 156.25, having decreased from a monthly peak of 157.83.

The Russian ruble has experienced a remarkable rally this year, outperforming all major currencies against the dollar. This unexpected surge has taken policymakers by surprise and poses potential risks to the stability of the Russian economy.

The Central Bank of Russia has identified hidden cryptocurrency mining activities as a significant factor bolstering the performance of the ruble. These activities are impacting currency flows, shaping new regulations, and affecting ruble forecasts.

The Eurasian Development Bank has published its economic forecast for Belarus for 2026. Economist Dzmitry Kruk provided insights on the feasibility of this forecast and what it implies for the country's economic outlook.

Predictions for 2026 indicate that the currencies of Turkey, Russia, Norway, Romania, and Belarus are expected to experience significant depreciation, which could impact tourists traveling to these countries.

The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card for December 23, 2025, includes an archive of past issues. The December 22 update features RM's analysis of ISW data covering the period from November 25 to December.